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"By the end of 2015, card issuers had seen a 25 percent decrease in their fraud occurrences, comparing the fourth quarter of 2014 with the fourth quarter of 2015," Conroy said.Approximately 20 percent of all their card-present transactions are going through as chip cards.And the study had at its disposal the actual experience of countries that have already made the move to EMV technology.

"They're switching tactics and focusing on other areas." That means that if you're accessing an increasing number of accounts from mobile phones, i Pads or even your Xbox or Play Station, as do the majority of Americans, you're at greater risk than ever before of becoming a victim of some type of identity fraud.

"The rate of online fraud is increasing faster than the rate of e-commerce transactions in the United States," said Al Pascual, director of fraud and security at Javelin.

Application fraud — when information stolen in a hack is used to open new credit card accounts, such as with the Anthem health insurance breach — will hit $2.1 billion by 2020. Michael Thelander, iovation's product marketing manager, said that w A third type of fraud, called account takeover, whereas hackers use compromised data to log into consumer and business online accounts and drain them of money, could reach more than $1 billion by 2020.

Thelander said many companies have tools in place to combat fraud, such as for card-not-present charges (the $7.2 billion estimate), but they may not be prepared for the sudden uptick.

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Roughly one-third of the nation's retailers had implemented EMV as of December, and experts expect the security problems that plague users of traditional magnetic swipe cards to greatly diminish over the next three to four years, when the majority of merchants — 84 percent, according to Javelin Strategy & Research — will have made the switch.

But as the iovation/Aite Group study predicts, "Criminals aren't going to get honest and get new jobs," Conroy said.

In the short term, the switch to the chip card technology (known as EMV, which can process credit cards with embedded smart chips) will cause fraud to increase. Beyond the billion in fraud expected this year, there will be as much as billion in fraud committed between now and 2020 as the window of opportunity narrows for hackers to cash in on stolen credit card data from magnetic strip cards, according to a new study from antifraud company iovation and financial industry consultant Aite Group.

There's a mad rush that's going to take place on the dark web to get the most value out of the stolen data before newer systems immediately recognize the magnetic strip card numbers as clearly fraudulent, and "it is going to get worse," said Julie Conroy, research director at Aite Group.

Card-present (in-store) fraud saw 5.6 million victims in 2015, up from 5.4 million in 2014.

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