Only a few of the mortgage REITs have reported so far.
The m REITs I put most of the m REITs, one corporation, and one ETF into the table because I wanted to get a more complete estimation.
The goal here is to have a fairly large sample size so we can identify trends and similarities throughout the sector.
After talking it over with another analyst, I decided to revise my estimates on Q4 earnings.
I was projecting for a mid-point in the very high $.30s.
The m REIT sector only contains about 25 total organizations but the investing and hedging strategies have very material differences.
It is also worth emphasizing that I opted to use the GAAP book value for each m REIT.
I continue to expect at least one dividend increase in the first half of 2018. CYS often takes on more duration risk and rates are rising substantially.
However, I model out some projections for changes in BV across several of the mortgage REITs and the damage for CYS shouldn’t be so much higher that it would justify that difference. This is an attractive environment for investors to look at pair trades.
They often record the largest premium and 113.3% is actually pretty low compared to where they have traded previously.
Investors should expect BXMT to raise the dividend at some point in 2018.
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